Renewable energy : What to Expect!

Energy is essential to our society to ensure our quality of life and to underpin all other elements of our economy. Renewable energy technologies offer the promise of clean, abundant energy gathered

from self-renewing resources such as the sun, wind, earth, and plants. Virtually all regions of the world have renewable resources of one type or another. Currently  most of renewable energy  comes from hydro power and traditional biomass sources. Wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal technologies are cost-effective today in an increasing number of markets, and are making important steps to broader commercialization. Each of the renewable energy technologies is in a different stage of research, development, and commercialization, and all have differences in current and future expected costs, current industrial base, resource availability, and potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The technical status, cost, and applications of major renewable energy technologies and implications for increased adoption of renewable is being reviewed.

From the dawn of human civilization to about 100 years ago, the sources of energy used by mankind were predominantly human and animal muscle and wood, with lesser amounts of solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal. With the discovery of oil, the development of natural gas fields, and the widespread distribution of electricity from coal-powered central power plants, fossil fuels became the predominant sources of energy in the United States and the world. Is there another major transition ahead for energy? Can the renewable resources that sustained early civilization be harnessed with enough efficiency and availability and at a cost to meet a significant portion of the much higher energy needs of today’s society? Although there are always risks in predictions, the convergence

of some of today’s trends suggests interesting possibilities. In summary, today’s converging trends related to renewable energy include:

• relevant scientific discoveries and engineering progress;

• emergence of a new economic structure in the electricity sector;

• trends toward decentralization and modularity;

• explosive advances in computers, information, and telecommunications;

• globalization of markets;

• persistent, pervasive support for a clean environment;

• limited future availability of inexpensive fossil fuels.

Do these converging trends mean that we are on the brink of a new energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables? Several independent entities have recently developed scenarios indicating that renewable energy will play a major role in the energy mix for the world, with increasing impacts beginning as early as 2000–2010 and major impacts by 2050. In both of the Shell International scenarios, energy contributions from conventional energy resources begin to level off in 20–30 years, with petroleum consumption actually decreasing . According to these scenarios, the increases in world energy demand will be supplied by renewable energy technologies, which will provide 30%–50% of world energy by 2050.